Top 5 Early Insights
Published: 14 Apr 2016
Randwick winner - Rudy winning the Group 2 Villiers Stakes over 1,600 metres
The third week in a row at Royal Randwick brings the Autumn Carnival to a close. Record breaking performances from WINX, CHAUTAUQUA, YANKEE ROSE and TAVAGO will always be remembered, along with the stunning finish from lil' LUCIA VALENTINA last week in the $4 million Queen Elizabeth.
More Group One action, a fairer track and evenly-matched fields makes this weekend a good betting card again.
Ahead of the full card of Race Guides going on-line Friday morning, the Analyst Team have listed their Top 5 Early Insights below.
All odds are provided by our partner CrownBet.
No. 1 Fancy a Fair Track?
After the rail has been nearer the true lately and we have seen some OFF RAILS and NEAR RAILS bias the last two weeks, there's a big change this weekend. Track managers have pushed the rail out to +9 metres which is way past the 'camber' and on fresh ground.
Based on what we have seen before, it could be a fair track on the weekend!
No. 2 Tough Types
The Carnival this year has been dominated by tough Randwick types that handle the sticky conditions and testing track. Horses like SOFIA ROSA (Oaks winner), GALLANTE (Sydney Cup winner), LUCIA VALENTINA (Queen Elizabeth winner) and TAVAGO (Derby winner) are all leaner than most others and have skipped through the turf while others floundered.
PEARLS (Race 4), YANKEE ROSE (Race 5) and NANCY (Race 9) are three gallopers that fit the same mould if the conditions are similar on Saturday.
Bet on NANCY now at $3.5
No. 3 Power and Scope
The Hall Mark Stakes (Race 6) is a very evenly-matched race with a few chances, including impressive barrier trial winners SPEAK FONDLY and MUSIC MAGNATE. They both have the scope to progress and beat proven sprinters CHARLIE BOY, FAST'N'ROCKING and TARGET IN SIGHT, but only one of them has the 'big power' to produce a rapid 1,200 metre time.
SPEAK FONDLY will be hard to overcome from barrier 5.
Bet on SPEAK FONDLY now at $6
No. 4 Wondering about Waller
The feature of the day is the All Aged Stakes over 1,400 metres (Race 7) and markets are headed by Waller runner PRESS STATEMENT. The big question in the race is whether stablemate KERMADEC can produce the same effort he did in the George Ryder, when he left PRESS STATEMENT in his wake.
A poor run in Doncaster leaves us wondering if he is at his peak, but the odds are worth specking.
Bet on KERMADEC now at $7
No. 5 Grand Final Run
A lot of the horses in the Japan Racing Association Plate (Race 8) are heading towards the Brisbane Winter Carnival, seven of them either first-up or second-up in their campaigns.
Helen Page's RUDY is fourth-up after a solid effort in the Group One Doncaster. Betting on a horse near their peak is always a good strategy.
Bet on RUDY now at $10