Melbourne Cup Analysis - The Caulfield Cup
Published: 02 Nov 2014
The Race Guide's team at the track gives you the run-down on each horse in the Caulfield Cup, how they performed and what it means for their Melbourne Cup chances.
1. Admire Rakti - 1st
In the yard
Looked well, quite a sturdy type with a bit of strength in his frame for a stayer.
Result
Ran home brilliantly down the outside to finish 1st.
Melbourne Cup betting
- Post-race odds. Firmed in the market to $4
- Current odds. Drifted to better value at $5 with Luxbet.
Analyst Melbourne Cup comment
A great performance. Was tightened a bit early and had to come wide on the turn to avoid the wayward Waller runners inside him. He picked up good speed when asked, as he showed in his Japan Cup 4th. A lot of talk that 3200m will be better, but The Race Guide's analysis suggest he rates at a similar level to 2400m. Remains a big chance in the Cup.
7. Seismos - 15th
In the yard
Just a lean galloper and he didn't impress. Seems like the type that would need a very strong tempo and a wet track to compete.
Result
Plugged away along the inside to finish 15th.
Melbourne Cup betting
- Post-race odds. Drifted out to $26.
- Current odds. Continued to drift to $51 with Luxbet.
Analyst Melbourne Cup comment
Really doesn't seem the type of horse that would be suited in Australian conditions. An odd choice to bring him out. Not a good bet.
9. Junoob - 7th
In the yard
A long-striding and rangy stayer that Waller has got to look better each campaign. He shone in the yard.
Result
Settled wide near the pace, got out-sprinted on the turn and kept lifting to finish 7th.
Melbourne Cup betting
- Post-race odds. One of the favoured runners at $14.
- Current odds. Now out to good value at $26 with Luxbet.
Analyst Melbourne Cup comment
He didn't quicken as usual and had quite a tough run in transit. Looked one of the unlucky runners after getting well backed in the last ten minutes before the race. The way he lifts over the last 100m is impressive and it bodes well for stretching out to 3200m. Can win the Cup.
11. Who Shot Thebarman - 13th
In the yard
A strong and robust type of stayer with a good engine. He was a little unsettled in the yard, but he usually is.
Result
Tracked up ok until struggled around the tight home turn. Only balanced up last 100m and finished 13th.
Melbourne Cup betting
- Post-race odds. Remained good value at $21.
- Current odds: Even better odds at $26 with Luxbet.
Analyst Melbourne Cup comment
He simply looks like a Melbourne Cup horse. There were questions about him getting around the home turn at Caulfield and he really struggled. Flemington is where his best form is and he will lap up the 3200m. A great bet.
14. Lidari - 6th
In the yard
Not the biggest and strongest in the yard, he is quite an elegant looking galloper. Was fit and well in the yard.
Result
Travelled nicely to the turn from a good position. Kept on evenly for 6th.
Melbourne Cup betting
- Post-race odds. Has stayed at similar odds at around $35.
- Current odds. Out to the big odds of $71 with Luxbet.
Analyst Melbourne Cup comment
He did seem to have every chance in the run compared to a few other hard-luck stories. Racing in consistent form so might not be far away if he lines up. Just might lack the class to win.
15. Lucia Valentina - 3rd
In the yard
She is a lean and athletic stayer with a very efficient build. Looked fine in the yard.
Result
Had to go right back. Zac Purton (Admire Rakte) gave her a few taps on the nose with the whip when pushed wide on the turn. Produced a big finishing surge to come 3rd.
Melbourne Cup betting
- Post-race odds. Firmed into a solid $8 quote
- Current odds. The support continues, now into $7.50 with Luxbet.
Analyst Melbourne Cup comment
Her run was simply every bit as good as the winners. She will always be a risk of getting 'bullied' by the boys in a big handicap, but if she gets clear running room they just might not be able to hold her out. A huge chance.
19. Brambles - 4th
In the yard
A solid, robust and genuine type. Moody presented him in good shape in the yard.
Result
Got to an on-pace position and fought bravely for 4th.
Melbourne Cup betting
- Post-race odds. Kept firming into $16
- Current odds. Back out to very good each-way odds at $51 with Luxbet.
Analyst Melbourne Cup comment
You had to be impressed with his last 100m, but he did get the favoured on-pace position in a steadily run race. His racing style and consistent record give him a chance.
20. Araldo - 5th
In the yard
A quite athletic type of stayer with a good stride. He continued to look well this preparation, potentially parading a touch better than in Sydney two weeks ago.
Result
Made a long run from the back and kept lifting to line for 5th.
Melbourne Cup betting
- Post-race odds. Held firm at $26.
- Current odds. Slightly better value now at $31 with Luxbet.
Analyst Melbourne Cup comment
He can do a few things wrong, but he kept his mind on the job this time. Has stayed on strongly in two Group Ones in a row now over 2400m and is ready for the 3200m. A few others produced better runs with less luck though. An outside chance.
21. Unchain My Heart - 17th
In the yard
Unchain My Heart didn't impress and looked a level below the others.
Result
Finished at the back of the pack.
Melbourne Cup betting
- Post-race odds. A huge price at $301.
- Current odds. She makes the field and comes in to $201 with Luxbet.
Analyst Melbourne Cup comment
Save your money, she is a long way from the best mare in the race.