Top 5 Early Insights
Published: 14 Dec 2018
#1 Flamin’ good odds
On his best form ratings WALL OF FIRE is the best stayer in the Christmas Cup this weekend, which might be a surprising fact given the odds of around $13.
His first two runs at Randwick this campaign were good before things turned pear-shaped at Geelong, bumped on the turn and tailing off for last in the Cup behind Waterhouse and Bott’s Runaway.
He’s freshened up now, drops in class, likes a SOFT track and could be worth a play at odds.
#2 Hero or Dyslexic?
Lining up FIRSTHAND and CRADLE MOUNTAIN in the Listed Razor Sharp Handicap provides you with an interesting fact.
FIRSTHAND beat My Nordic Hero (rating 96 then, now 101 after recent win) last start, while CRADLE MOUNTAIN beat Dyslexic (mare rated 87, equivalent to gelding rated 83).
That’s a massive gap in the ratings and shows how steep the challenge is for CRADLE MOUNTAIN.
#3 Firing down the outside
If the outside is the place to be for the straight races at Flemington, the Busuttin Young trained WEAPON will be hard to beat fresh from barrier 14.
He won easily first-up last campaign and had excuses at his only other fresh run on debut.
With a 5th at Listed level to his name also, he just needs to walk into the yard looking fit to be a bet.
#4 Angel on the rise
The staying race at Flemington has a few well-exposed types so maybe looking for the horse on the rise is the way to go.
EARTH ANGEL copped a bump on the turn last start and chased home solidly for 4th over 2,100 metres.
Her last 2,500 metre effort was strong enough to suggest the blue-blood (Animal Kingdom x Miss Finland) could do something on Saturday.
#5 Racing NSW helps the ‘Lad’
The new rating system in NSW gives horses two ratings, one for metro and provincial meetings, and another for country races. Those ratings usually start about five or six points apart (higher for country) and change based on performance.
MERCURIAL LAD hasn’t won in the city since April 2017 and gets a massive 16 points lower metro rating as a result.
Expect a brave run on a choppy Randwick track at odds.