Turnbull Showdown

Published: 02 Oct 2016

How good is he? - Hartnell has swept past all competition in Sydney and takes on Jameka today

The Group 1 Turnbull at Flemington shapes as a showdown between Godolphin's beautifully balanced HARTNELL and the muscular mare JAMEKA. Both horses dominated their lead-up runs last start so The Analyst Team have a close look at the pair.

The Form

Looking at HARTNELL's huge 6 length defeat of Who Shot Thebarman you would think the horse is unbeatable today. However, the form didn't hold up yesterday in the Group 1 Metropolitan at Randwick (Who Shot Thebarman finished 7th, Grand Marshal 9th and Magic Hurricane 10th). 

JAMEKA cut up the inside and sprinted clear of a field that included Real Love, who has since won. But, Gallente finished 2nd there, a stayer that had similar ratings to Who Shot Thebarman, Grand Marshal etc. from the Autumn.

It's a tricky form-line, but also worth mentioning Montaigne, who beat JAMEKA in the Group 1 Rosehill Guineas and then was beaten by Who Shot Thebarman and Grand Marshal in the Group 1 BMW. 

The Factors

TEMPO - Both horses enjoyed sprinting from near the pace off STEADY tempos last start. A similar set-up to the race they are faced with today. Perhaps a slight preference to HARTNELL, who has been so explosive this campaign.

TRACK - HARTNELL ran a good race in this race last year before failing in the Melbourne Cup and JAMEKA has won twice at the course. No problems for each.

DISTANCE - A strongly-run 2,000 metres may be as far as HARTNELL wants, but it won't be strong today. JAMEKA is proven at the distance too. Double tick again.

CONDITIONS - Both horses would prefer a slight 'cut' in the ground, maybe somewhere in the SOFT 5 range or the like. As long as the track isn't very firm they both should be OK.

SCOPE - It's doubtful HARTNELL will improve even further from his recent big wins as a six-year-old gelding. Four-year-old mare JAMEKA is the one that could find another two or three lengths. A tick to the mare.

The Verdict

HARTNELL is 1-3 lengths better on exposed form and has an explosive sprint, while JAMEKA is on the way up and could improve again. 

Bet on HARTNELL to win at $1.8 and the Quinella

click here to see the market for Flemington Race 7