Stepping Up to the Oaks
Published: 16 Apr 2021
Yard analyst Adrian Sciglitano has a look through the main contenders for the Oaks this Saturday to find the filly best suited to the testing 2,400 metres at Randwick.
MONTEFILIA
3YO bay filly | Kermadec (NZ) x Bana Wu (GB)
The David Payne-trained daughter of Kermadec drops back to her own sex after a solid effort in last week’s Derby where she was safely held in 4th behind Explosive Jack. While the run had merit, it was the second time she has been beaten as favourite over the longer distance. In her favour are some stamina on her dam-side pedigree, the extra fitness she gets from running last week and the promise she is showing in the mounting yard, a maturing filly that has strengthened this Autumn. I can see her being right in the finish again.
AMARELINHA
3YO bay filly | Savabeel x Hopscotch (NZ)
The strapping daughter of Savabeel makes her way across the ditch to contest the Australian Oaks following her victory in the New Zealand Oaks. Possessing a classic New Zealand staying pedigree by Savabeel out of an O’reilly (NZ) mare she is the only filly in the field that is proven over the distance. But don’t pigeonhole her as just a grinding long distance type. Blessed with her fair share of muscle and a rapid sprint on firmer ground, she has the class to emulate the efforts of previous Kiwi Oaks winners Bonneval, Sofia Rosa and Rising Romance.
HUNGRY HEART
3YO chestnut filly | Frankel (GB) x Harlech (GB)
Master trainer Chris Waller looks to have found the key to his daughter of Frankel (GB) in recent starts, however there is one box she hasn’t ticked, the 2,400 metres required to win the Oaks. Arriving here in career best form after spectacularly running down main rival Harmony Rose in the Vinery over 2,000 metres, Hungry Heart arguably has the best form in the race and may only need to see out the distance to secure back-to-back wins. The negative is that she isn’t the biggest or more robust in the yard, however her pedigree suggests the extra distance should suit and you have to love the way she has been finding the line.
HARMONY ROSE
3YO grey-chestnut filly | Glass Harmonium (IRE) x Gowana
The favourite for this year’s Australian Oaks comes in the form of Mark Newnham trained Harmony Rose. A tough grey on-pace type, she was narrowly defeated over the 2,000 metres in the Vinery by main rival Hungry Heart who she meets here again. It was well documented that she went much too fast in the lead that day, but she did have the ‘on rails’ bias on her favour too, making it a hard run to judge. Looking at her conformation and pedigree to try and see how the 2,400 metres will suit we have uncovered a couple of possible risks; her dam-side breeding is littered with sprinting types and she comes up against a few that will outshine her in the yard. In her favour though is tonnes of pure grit and determination and that may prove to be enough.
IMPECUNIOUS
3YO brown filly | Sacred Falls (NZ) x Sheezababe
Away from the favoured chances, the Bussutin/Young team have prepared their filly Impecunious perfectly for her to run out the 2,400 metres on Saturday. Out of a Zabeel mare who was Listed placed over 2,500 metres and Sacred Falls she may be the best suited on pedigree to run out the distance strongly and she has been showing stamina on the track too. Her late-closing 3rd to Hungry Heart in the G1 Vinery Stakes over 2,000 metres puts her within a couple of lengths of the top fillies and I am expecting even more improvement from her on Saturday.
The Verdict
AMARELINHA with a potent mix of stamina and acceleration.
View The Oaks Race Guide here.