Betting on Bias

Published: 04 Jun 2021

Speed to burn - Expat is the likely leader in Race 9 will be hard to run down

With the prospect of track bias at Rosehill Gardens today, The Race Guide’s Adrian Sciglitano has lined up a few early bets that can find the lead.

Race 3 - Too Much Caviar 

3YO brown gelding | All Too Hard x More Caviar

Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott are the masters of training on-pace gallopers and you can bet this improving type will be fired out from barrier seven by Tim Clark to lead. A son of All Too Hard out of the family of 2006 Myer Classic winner Lotteria, he has the class in his pedigree to win an off-season Saturday race and I have loved his tenacious qualities in the final furlong, including a brave last start 2nd to Easy Campese over the mile. An early look at the 6-metre rail makes him a bet for me. Click for Race Guide.

Race 4 - Mensa Missile

4YO bay gelding | Smart Missile x Irresistible Charm

If Too Much Caviar leads from start to finish you can expect the money to come for his stablemate in the next race. The free-running Mensa Missile steps out in what will be his seventh run of the campaign and we have learnt that he is a bit ‘field shy’ when stuck in behind runners. Tim Clark will make sure there is no traffic from barrier three and he is another that can absorb a considerable amount of pressure on-pace. Click for Race Guide.

Race 5 - Rammstein

4YO bay gelding | Snitzel x Red Fez

This four-year-old son of Snitzel is the favourite most impacted by track conditions and pattern today. If the track is a drying SOFT 5 with on-pace bias he could win by a big margin down on the low weight, but if the inside is ‘chopping out’ he is risky. The form-lines are strong after he was narrowly beaten by I Am Power last start and in-form apprentice Jean Van Overmiere is sure to find the rails from an insider barrier. Click for Race Guide.

Race 6 - Snowfire 

4YO chestnut gelding | Star Witness x Still Dreaming

When looking for horses who can make their own luck on-speed I want to find those who have the tenacity to fight on when challenged and the Hawkes-trained gelding Snowfire fits that profile. Blessed with the tactical speed to lead in a race lacking tempo it is not surprising that there is money coming for him this morning. A softer track today, a step to 1,500 metres and the yard improvement he has from his first-up run only add to the confidence. Click for Race Guide.

Race 9 - Expat 

3YO Chestnut filly | Makfi (GB) x  Utmost Caution

If the inside is holding up come Race 9 and the +6 – metre rail is favouring those up on the pace and on the inside, Expat will look to be a popular option to send punters home a winner on Saturday. Blessed with natural gate speed it will be ‘handle bars down’ from the jump with Sam Clipperton in the saddle. A powerful sprinter, not lacking anything in terms of strength and athleticism, the daughter of Makfi (GB) is another with significant yard improvement from her first-up from a spell. Let’s hope she can finish off a successful day ‘betting on bias’. Click for Race Guide.