Royal Randwick Form & Factors
Published: 10 Dec 2014
The detailed Form & Factor preview for the main events at Royal Randwick this weekend is shown below. With rain around midweek and the rail in the true position, a bias towards gallopers off the rails is likely.
Race 3 - Christmas Cup 2400m 2:20pm
FORM
Saigon Tea and Metaphorical are both very well positioned on the weight scale and have proven ratings that can win this. Terai and Lucky Lucky Lucky's last start performances are good enough, but Terai has stronger form in previous runs and looks one that can improve again.
FACTORS
Tough track / possible Slow Tempo / possible Wet Track / possible Off Rails Bias
Getting onto the tough Randwick circuit will suit World Wide, so expect some improvement from poor last performance. Saigon Tea is another that will lap up the long demanding straight and wet conditions. Metaphorical and Terai may be some risk of keeping their momentum up the Randwick rise and into the straight on a wet track, but both have great stamina. Metaphorical might also suffer due to likely Off Rails bias, a good ride will be needed. Permit and Lucky Lucky Lucky are risks if it gets too wet.
VERDICT
- Analyst - Saigon Tea
- Horse Expert - Saigon Tea
- Bookie Battler - Terai
For the full Race Guide click here
Race 5 - Razor Sharp 1200m 3:35pm
FORM
Our Boy Malachi has been dominant and can improve to a new high level again if he handles Race Factors. Outside of him, not too much to choose between them. Howmuchdoyoulove me is weighted nicely on best ratings and can show up after impressive trials, while Dothraki has a consistent string of performances that would put him right in the finish. Cradle Me and That's A Good Idea also rates OK on best.
FACTORS
Tough track / possible Even-Good Tempo / possible Wet Track / possible Off Rails Bias
Some question marks on many of these up against the Race Factors. Our Boy Malachi has never faced a proper Wet Track (comes from North Queensland) and takes on the tough Royal Randwick circuit for the first time. Given he's a powerful type, there are real risks he won't be at his best. Dothraki and Red Excitement look to be well suited, while Howmuchdoyouloveme won't want the conditions to be too testing with the big weight first-up. Fare Well won't have the same turn-of-foot on a Wet Track.
VERDICT
- Analyst - Our Boy Malachi
- Horse Expert - Howmuchdoyouloveme
- Bookie Battler - Red Excitement
For the full Race Guide click here
Race 6 - Villiers Stakes 1600m 4:15pm
FORM
The best guide is usually the Festival Stakes in which Strawberry Boy was very impressive racing on a Good Tempo. Estonian Princess also wasn't far away, while the winner I'm Imposing ran at a level right up to his best given the race set up so well for him. Sir Moments did enough.
FACTORS
Tough track / possible Even Tempo / possible Wet Track / possible Off Rails Bias
Strawberry Boy is a big question mark up against these Race Factors, a big strong galloper that likes a flat track to show his best. Sir Moments will enjoy the Off Rails bias and ability to swoop down the outside, as will Rudy, who charges through wet tracks. Kaypers and Estonian Princess are genuine gallopers that usually keep trying while others tire in these conditions. Rose of Choice hasn't quite hit the line hard enough to suggest a tough 1600m is easily within her reach. Monton and Midsummer Sun aren't well suited.
VERDICT
- Analyst - Sir Moments
- Horse Expert - Estonian Princess
- Bookie Battler - Estonian Princess
For the full Race Guide click here