The Winning Moves at Royal Randwick
Published: 15 Feb 2015
Momentum builder - Thump 'got moving' and built momentum at the right time which is what she loves to do.
How did you go on the weekend? A few winners, some hard luck stories, or a few lessons learnt?
In a sport that has more hard luck tales than most, working out if you made the wrong move can be a tricky science.
The Race Guide takes a look at the Winning Moves for Royal Randwick. Did you need more info, or a bit of luck, to find that winning bet?
Race 1
Race Rating - Very Winnable
Betting against a 'one-paced' favourite (in this case) Spy Decoder not being able to show a turn of foot when required was the key here. Another factor was simply the class of jockey Tommy Berry, as he used his patience rode the best part of the track on a well weighted horse.
Winning Move - Backing against Spy Decoder and going with Tommy Berry to outsmart the others
Race 2
Race Rating - Bit of Luck Needed
Looking at the speed map, there was a possibility of a Strong Tempo, but no one could have predicted such a strong speed with a tear-away leader. The winner Planet Purple needed this tempo to compete.
Winning Move -Playing the small chance of Strong Tempo and a horse that has great stamina
Race 3
Race Rating - Very Winnable
With one of Australia's most powerful stables saddling up a few runners, it was likely there would be a winner in royal blue. Blake Shinn rated front-runner Haptic to perfection, as he often does on leaders.
Winning Move - Betting on a leading stable's best two horses in a race in which they have a few
Race 4
Race Rating - Winnable
A firm track over 1200m Randwick suited Heart Testa nicely as he lined up for his grand final at good odds. He looked as wound up as Waller would ever get him. The favourite Driefontein was a bit unlucky getting stuck near the inside.
Winning Move - Backing horses placed at their grand final and not those that are still getting fit, plus a touch of luck
Race 5
Race Rating - Bit of Luck Needed
The autumn carnival is in the air and Gai Waterhouse can never be overlooked in the lead up races to the 'big ones'. Adrift, by Zabeel, is on the way to the Oaks, but she was ridden to win first-up after being well backed.
The Winning Move - Following the money. This one was hard to find!
Race 6
Race Rating - Very Winnable
Imports often need some time to acclimatise in Australia, and Contributer improved to an even better level after a good fresh run last prep. A strong build and dashing turn of foot suggested 1400 metres would be ok too.
Winning Move - Following an improving import with the power to win over 1400 metres
Race 7
Race Rating - Winnable
Thump had looked very genuine in two lead up trials (1st and 2nd), and Tye Angland gave her the 'building momentum' type of run that she relishes. The track conditions were perfect for her and she was also well weighted on the compressed weight scale, with top weight allocated 60kg.
Winning Move - Backing a horse that rated well on best in conditions that suited
Race 8
Race Rating - Very Winnable
Chris Waller doesn't always have his gallopers primed first-up. One sign that he has them ready is two or more trials before a race. Telepathic had two good trials into this and her best ratings were simply better.
Winning Move -When Waller trials them more than once, they are usually fit. Telepathic was just too good
For the full Analyst Review, from the Yard to the Post, click here
For The Sunday Collect, a candid look at the day, click here