The Weight 'Squeeze' @ Newcastle

Published: 16 Mar 2015

Rated to win - Mighty Lucky is well placed in the Newcastle Newmarket

Close your eyes and pick the best rated horse? We all know that punting is never that easy.

And lucky it isn't! We wouldn't stand a chance against the models and analysis of the data-driven punters. As the computer-generated betting plunges on Protectionist and Deep Field showed, you can never replace the insight that comes from years of reading the Guide.

But sometimes the ratings and numbers give you opportunities you can't dismiss, like the 'weight squeeze' in the Newcastle Newmarket on Wednesday.

The Analyst Team has a closer look.

The Race

Handicap races are usually given a rating and the Group 3 Newcastle Newmarket rates as a Benchmark 105 race this year. Top-weight LASER HAWK is rated on that mark with 59kg.

GYPSY DIAMOND is the next highest rated at 99. She gets 6 points, or 3 kg, off Laser Hawk and 2kg off because she is a mare, putting her on the limit weight of 54kg.

So What?

That's where it gets interesting.

Because 54kg is the limit weight, the rest of the field are 'squeezed' together, with the lesser horses getting no weight relief at all.

LASER HAWK 59kg 105
GYPSY DIAMOND 54kg 99
MIGHTY LUCKY 54kg 92
SCORPIO QUEEN 54kg 91
WOODBINE 54kg 86
COUNTRYMAN 54kg 84
LE CORDON BLEU 54kg 77
EXCITED PRINCE 54kg 72

MIGHTY LUCKY and EXCITED PRINCE are rated 20 points, or 10kgs, apart yet they still carry the same weight. Even WOODBINE would usually be getting 3kg off MIGHTY LUCKY if it wasn't for the 'squeeze' at the bottom.

Having a Bet?

If you're having a punt on the race, the following insights from the Analyst Team might help you find a winner.

Analyst - "You can't go past the impact ratings have on this race, GYPSY DIAMOND finished off with good horses last start and is well-placed. She is very hard to beat."
Horse Expert - "I worry about the lack of a turn-of-foot WOODBINE has and think COUNTRYMAN needs a tougher track to win in this grade. MIGHTY LUCKY has the conditions in his favour and can win."
Bookie Battler - "Not getting too fancy in this one. Reckon LE CORDON BLEU is the best horse six months from now so jumping on before everyone else does! Having a saver on MIGHTY LUCKY for sure."

On the way up - Le Cordon Bleu is an improving type

Check back in for the midweek Form Guides and the Race Guides for Golden Slipper Day on Friday at 8am.