The Winning Moves @ Royal Randwick
Published: 23 May 2015
Found the fast lane - Cassidy stuck to the rails on Beyond Thankful as the others floundered
The trick at Royal Randwick today was that there weren't any tricks!
Punters, jockeys, trainers and even the course groundsmen expect there to be a strong OFF RAILS bias, but it never eventuated. The track played perfectly with the classier horses able to show their turn-of-foot on an even surface.
In hindsight, what were the winning moves to come out with all 8 winners?
Race 1 FRESH FOR KIDS PLATE
The Race: An honest FAIR TEMPO, with the winner COYS surging through near the inside in the better ground
The Winning Move: Betting on Scope
COYS had showed talent in his two starts to date, and even more importantly, he had shown improvement.
The ability to take another step was what we had to bet on here, along with a lucky ride from Parr, who found the best ground by fluke as the other jockeys drifted wider.
Race 2 YOUR LOCAL GREENGROCER HANDICAP
The Race: A slow speed was set up and TREE OF JESSE sprinted best from the box seat
The Winning Move: Betting on Race Factors (tempo and conditions)
The small field meant a SLOW to STEADY TEMPO was likely, so a horse with a good turn-of-foot that could race near the pace was needed.
TREE OF JESSE is only small, but she can quicken when its wet.
We had to bet on her being the right horse in an evenly matched race.
Race 3 ARDROSSAN BATLOW APPLES HANDICAP
The Race: An honest FAIR TEMPO, HIGH MIDNIGHT came away with RYE to fight it out from midfield while SEBRINA was badly blocked
The Winning Move: Betting on the Class Horse and Jockey
The two class horses in the race were HIGH MIDNIGHT and SEBRINA, but both had to navigate wide draws.
Clark found the rails in the first furlong on HIGH MIDNIGHT, while young Brodie Loy couldn't get out of his own way on SEBRINA.
Taking into account the jockey paid good dividends.
Race 4 TOYOTA MATERIAL HANDLING (AUSTRALIA) HANDICAP
The Race: A steady, but FAIR TEMPO set up. MIRAGE threw the race away darting to the outside and BEYOND THANKFUL took the inside run to win
The Winning Move: Betting on the last man standing!
Not sure what to make of this race, apart from the fact the genuine short-course horses were all disappointing.
We had to bet that a solid performance from BEYOND THANKFUL, who loves the wet, was good enough as the horses around him fell away.
MIRAGE was the worst culprit, drifting out badly at the end.
Race 5 GET WELL GLENN HANDICAP
The Race: A STRONG TEMPO set up as CHARLES IN CHARGE tried to steal it leading by a few lengths, but GOD'S IN HIM sprinted to catch him
The Winning Move: Betting on the Best Horse
The HEAVY track was a concern for GOD'S IN HIM, who was strongly favoured after an ominous trial.
Some afternoon sunshine ensured the conditions weren't too tough and the strapping Hawkes sprinter put in a bold bid down the straight.
CHARLES IN CHARGE, who was much fitter, couldn't hold him off.
Race 6 SYDNEY MARKETS LTD MCKELL CUP
The Race: SINGING FLAME set up a STEADY TEMPO and couldn't hold off the sprint of SENSE OF OCCASION at the end
The Winning Move: Betting on the Best Horse
They didn't go hard in this race and the on-pace gallopers dominated.
SENSE OF OCCASION is building an ominous record on wet tracks, a surface he is able to sprint quickly on at the end.
We had to bet on him finding the right conditions, and bet against the very one-paced MAJOR MAJOR, who struggled to sprint with this class of horse.
Race 7 SYDNEY MARKETS FOUNDATION HANDICAP
The Race: ALBERTO MAGIC picked up and sprinted past for an easy win
The Winning Move: Betting on the Best Horse
Not much analysis needed before or after this race.
ALBERTO MAGIC was the best horse in a race full of questionable sprinters. Most of the others were either lacking fitness or out of form.
Race 8 SAVE OUR SONS HANDICAP
The Race: A FAIR TEMPO was set up, BERRIMILLA surged past SONG AND LAUGHTER, who had stolen a break
The Winning Move: Checking the Mounting Yard
Following Waller runners isn't the easiest task. They are often ridden quietly at the back and in need of the run especially after only one barrier trial.
Betting after the mounting yard, where BERRIMILLA was clearly in good fitness with shine to her coat, was the winning move here.
She was much too strong on the line.
Shining in the yard - Berrimilla was fit and ready to go first-up
For the full Analyst's Yard to the Post review of the day, click here