Top 5 Early Insights @ Rosehill & Doomben

Published: 28 May 2015

Strong favourite - Waller's filly Winx can win the Oaks this weekend

Rosehill Gardens is the venue for Saturday racing in Sydney this week and the full Race Guides will be on-line Friday at 8am. Light showers are forecast and the track is likely to be on the better side of Soft by Saturday.

The big racing is up north in Brisbane, Doomben hosting an exciting renewal of the Oaks. Chris Waller's WINX is fancied by many to catch Waterhouse's BOHEMIAN LILY.

With the early betting markets now up, The Race Guide's Analyst Team have put together their Top 5 Early Insights for Rosehill Gardens and Doomben.

1 - Ready to Fly

AERONAUTICAL hasn't won for a long time, a total of 532 days passing since his last visit to the winner's stall.

It will take a lot of trust to back him in Race 5, but with a 3kg claim he finds himself on a similar weight to horses like the mare DIVERTIRE and getting 2.5kg weight relief from RUGGED CROSS.

He might have found the right race to break through.

The right race? - Aeronautical is well-placed this weekend

2 - A 'Proper' Sprinter

The more powerful types often succeed over the Rosehill 1200m, a course and distance that calls for speed and a rapid turn-of-foot.

While GOOD PROJECT, GRUNDERZEIT and CROOKED BLAZE might be looking for slightly further in Race 6, KAEPERNICK is perfectly suited on the drying track.

He might simply be too fast when it matters.

Pure power - Kaepernick has a lightning turn-of-foot

3 - Lunar Rising Again?

It takes a good memory to recall some of LUNAR RISE's best form before his failed trip to Hong Kong.

He and a group of other talented Sydney three-year-olds dominated the late Spring Melbourne feature races in 2012. Looking back at his form, a 4th in the Group 1 Spring Champion behind It's A Dundeel stands out alongside a win in the Group 3 Carbine Club.

His second-up 3rd behind You'll Never suggests the Cummings team have him back on track. On his best ratings, this weekend's BM 85 race is well within his reach.

Talented - Lunar Rise is on the comeback trail

4 - Mad Markets

Bookies have a formula for Win and Place odds, with all horses having Win odds that are about three times better than the Place odds.

That seems logical, until you look at the horses themselves.

In Race 8, SENTA DE NOCHE is a very unreliable type that either wins or fails in his races, while EARNEST ERNEST is a perennial place-getter in Sydney racing.

Backing the former for a place, or the latter for a win, seems mad when the value is so much better doing the opposite.

Not genuine - Earnest Ernest often doesn't stretch out at the finish

5 - Bohemian's Catch 22

After BOHEMIAN LILY's dominant win last start it looks like she is suited setting a strong speed in the lead.

The problem is, her biggest competitors in the Oaks thrive in that kind of race, including WINX, RUSTIC MELODY and SEBRINA.

It's going to be very hard for her to grind that class of horse into the Doomben turf.

Tough stayer - Rustic Melody will enjoy the strong tempo in the Oaks

Race day note: Bohemian Lily has been scratched