Key Factors @ Royal Randwick

Published: 15 Oct 2015

Ticks the boxes - Telepathic can fire first-up for Waller at Randwick

 

A full analysis of each feature Race Guide race, including the Key Factors, is provided below.

 

Race Day Conditions

  • Track: Royal Randwick
  • Conditions: GOOD 3 to GOOD 4 Saturday AM (70% chance of showers during the afternoon)
  • Bias: FAIR, slightly OFF RAILS

 

Race 5 - CITY TATTERSALLS CLUB HANDICAP

  • Prizemoney $85,000.00
  • Restrictions Three-Years-Old and Upwards
  • Class BenchMark 83
  • Weight Handicap
  • Apprentice can claim 

Race Conditions

  • Distance: 1400m
  • Tempo: FAIR

Preview

Quite a competitive BM 83 over 1400m and we should have a FAIR tempo.  The solid on-pacers TARANGOWER, PERFECT WEAPON, WILD’N’FAMOUS, PYTHAGOREAN (trialled OK) and MORAL VICTORY will all be up there, with the latter a good winning chance on a drying track – he has a better turn-of-foot than most. They’ll have to be good to hold out the classy TELEPATHIC, who resumes after two good trials and has great first-up stats. BOLD CIRCLE is the knock-out chance if the leaders roll along and BERRIMILLA is in the mix for a place again.

Key Factors

  • STAGE OF PREP – TELEPATHIC resumes, a classy mare that often puts her best runs in first-up, while PYTHAGOREAN might need more time. GAMBLESTOWN is just starting to peak.
  • DISTANCE – TELEPATHIC, BERRIMILLA, MORAL VICTORY, PERFECT WEAPON and BOLD CIRCLE all find ratings near their peak over the 1400m.
  • JOCKEY – Tye Angland looks like a good pairing with BERRIMILLA, while TELEPATHIC, PERFECT WEAPON and BOLD CIRCLE all rely on the services of a young apprentice rider.

Quick Tips

  • Analyst: TELEPATHIC $4.40 Luxbet 
  • Horse Expert: MORAL VICTORY $6 Luxbet
  • Bookie Battler: BOLD CIRCLE (late scratching)

 

Race 6 - CITY TATTERSALLS CLUB BRIAN CROWLEY STAKES

  • Group Listed
  • Prizemoney $150,000.00
  • Restrictions Three-Years-Old
  • Weight Set Weights plus Penalties
  • Apprentice cannot claim 

Race Conditions

  • Distance: 1200m
  • Tempo: FAIR to STRONG

Preview

Now this is a race! A Set Weights race for the 3yos, this 1200m sprint is full of talented types. Good early pressure should ensure a FAIR to STRONG tempo, with the promising HELLBENT, tough FLIPPANT and speedy SPILL THE BEANS going forward. It’s hard to knock HELLBENT after his big recent win, apart from the fact we haven’t seen him under significant pressure ‘til now. A few other chances including top rated COUNTERATTACK, FLIPPANT (trial was only fair but has talent). ALART (improving) and SAMPEAH (professional).

Key Factors

  • WEIGHT – At the Set Weights there are a few horses poorly weighted in comparison to the top rater COUNTERATTACK, who would be giving most of the field lots more weight in a Handicap.
  • SCOPE – A couple with untapped potential, especially HELLBENT, as well as FLIPPANT first-up.
  • POSITION IN RUN – SAMPEAH and SECRET SAGA could get a nice trail behind the speed, while FLIPPANT and SPILL THE BEANS are both risky from the wide draws.

Quick Tips

 

Race 7 - CITY TATTERSALLS CLUB LIGHTNING

  • Group Listed
  • Prizemoney $150,000.00
  • Restrictions Three-Years-Old and Upwards
  • Weight Quality
  • Apprentice cannot claim 

Race Conditions

  • Distance: 1100m
  • Tempo: FAIR to STRONG

Preview

Speed to burn in this year’s Tatt’s Club Lightning, a testing FAIR to STRONG tempo likely with TIGER TEES and THAT’S A GOOD IDEA heading them up. FELL SWOOP could find the box seat and continue on his merry way to win 9 from 11, a gelding with a rapid turn-of-foot and the toughness to finish the race off. CRAFTINESS, ATMOSPHERICAL and RUNWAY STAR are all big threats if they can find the right run from a wider barrier, horses that enjoy the 1100m distance. Check the yard and the betting for first-uppers DOTHRAKI (trialled impressively) and FONTELINA (no trial, new trainer).

Key Factors

  • DISTANCE PERFORMANCE – FELL SWOOP, CRAFTINESS, ATMOSPHERICAL, ELOPING and RUNWAY STAR all enjoy the 1100m distance, while some others need a touch further.
  • SURGE – The possible STRONG tempo will bring DOTHRAKI, FONTELINA and maybe SURE AND FAST into the race, horses that can SURGE at the end.
  • TRAINER – FONTELINA moving to Tony Gollan could be a positive, while ELOPING moving to the Sargent stable could be a negative first-up.

Quick Tips

 

Race 8 - CITY TATTERSALLS CLUB CUP

  • Group Listed
  • Prizemoney $100,000.00
  • Restrictions Three-Years-Old and Upwards
  • Weight Quality
  • Apprentice cannot claim 

Race Conditions

  • Distance: 2400m
  • Tempo: FAIR to STEADY

Preview

Sydney’s feature mile and a half race for the day, the Tatt’s Clup Cup. A few tempo tricks in this one, it’s a race that could be STEADY, but CELTIC PRINCE got rolling early last start and made it a real test. Waller’s BEATEN UP brings the right form-lines and can adapt to most race set-ups, a big strong type that will relish the hard ground again. His main threats are the other favourites, Gai’s classy THE OFFER and the up-and-comer RULING DYNASTY (bit one-paced). PRINCE CHERI (can sprint at the finish) is a knock-out chance at odds if he can find his best.

Key Factors

  • ADAPTABILITY – Horses like BEATEN UP and THE OFFER can adjust to a steadier tempo
  • RELIABILITY – JUNOOB and PRINCE CHERI haven’t been at their best lately, while BEATEN UP, THE OFFER and RULING DYNASTY keep running solidly
  • POWER (turn-of-foot) – THE OFFER, BEATEN UP and PRINCE CHERI can quicken OK at the finish

Quick Tips

 

Race 9 - CITY TATTERSALLS CLUB NIVISON

  • Group Group 3
  • Prizemoney $125,000.00
  • Restrictions Four-Years-Old and Upwards Mares
  • Weight Set Weights plus Penalties
  • Apprentice cannot claim 

Race Conditions

  • Distance: 1200m
  • Tempo: FAIR 

Preview

The 'get out' stakes is an evenly-matched mares race, not one to lump a big bet on. Despite the big field, the tempo should be FAIR; leading chances MISS COVER GIRL (tough on-pacer) and NAYELI (good turn-of-foot) can both race on the pace and be hard to catch. They will have to be good to hold out FINE MIST (likes getting out wide and surging) and KRISTY LEE (big power). Other chances include SULTRY FEELING (flying, but will get back) and SLOTS (value each-way chance). Don't be surprised if there is a bunched finish. 

Key Factors

  • POSITION IN RUN – If horses are getting wider late in the day and making long swooping runs, SULTRY FEELING, FINE MIST, KRISTY LEE and SULTRY FEELING could get the right run
  • WEIGHT – The Set Weights conditions favours PEACE FORCE, FINE MIST & KRISTY LEE
  • DISTANCE – MISS COVER GIRL, KRISTY LEE and SLOTS have their peak ratings at the 1200m distance

Quick Tips

 

 




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