Key Factors: The Derby

Published: 29 Oct 2015

Derby winner - Fiveandahalfstar was big bold and had plenty of stamina

Flemington's 2,500 metres awaits the Derby contenders on Saturday, a big challenge for horses that are only three months into their three-year-old year. Never before has the stamina of these youngsters been tested like it will be in the classic Group One feature.

Preferment, Polanski and Fiveandahalfstar, the last three winners of the Derby, all had the ability to maintain a long run down the Flemington straight.

A look at 3 Key Factors will help us find the champion for 2015.

Key Factor 1: FORM

The lead up races have been on dry tracks and there hasn't been too many tricks with race tempo. We should be able to rely on the form coming into the Derby this weekend.

LIZARD ISLAND, SHARDS, TARZINO and ETYMOLOGY have all been close up in good races, while KIA ORA KOUTOU is unbeaten after four runs in Perth.

Positives

1. LIZARD ISLAND
2. SHARDS
3. KIA ORA KOUTOU
7. TARZINO
9. ETYMOLOGY

Group One placed - Lizard Island has raced against the best three-year-olds in the country

Key Factor 2: TYPE

We're looking for horses with the scope to relish 2,500 metres, backed up by stamina in their bloodlines. Favoured gallopers TARZINO and KIA ORA KOUTOU both shape as staying types, along with EXTRA CHOICE, ETYMOLOGY and PAY UP BRO.

At longer odds, SCADDEN’S RUN, COLONEL CUSTER and IRON BOSS are the right type, but may lack the class.

Positives

3. KIA ORA KOUTOU
6. EXTRA CHOICE
7. TARZINO
9. ETYMOLOGY
12. SCADDEN’S RUN
13. PAY UP BRO
14. COLONEL CUSTER
16. IRON BOSS

Real stayer - Tarzino has been hitting the line hard in recent runs

Key Factor 3: JOCKEY

Keeping the young horses settled and saving them for one last finishing surge requires the skills of a leading 'hoop' as shown by the recent winners of the race.

Bowman (Polanski, Sangster and Lion Tamer) and Oliver (Preferment and Fiveandahalfstar) have won the last five Derby's between them, while Craig Williams (Kibbutz) has also scored in the race.

It's hard to knock James McDonald too, the new superstar of Australian racing.

Positives

2. SHARDS (Bowman)
8. GET THE PICTURE (Oliver)
9. ETYMOLOGY (McDonald)
14. COLONEL CUSTER (Williams)

Champion jockey - Get The Picture gets the services of Damien Oliver this weekend

The Verdict

ETYMOLOGY rates well in all three categories, he could be the value at $17 win / $4.80 place.

Check out the full Derby market here.

Ticks all the boxes - Etymology has progressed nicely towards his grand final