Melbourne Cup: The Quick Guide

Published: 02 Nov 2015


A grand occasion - This year's Melbourne Cup is full of international stars

 

The Melbourne Cup | Group One | $6 million

Flemington | 3200m | Forecast GOOD to SOFT | Forecast FAIR BIAS

 

1. SNOW SKY $51

Barrier 16 | 58.0kg | 4yo bay Entire | Ryan Moore | Sir Michael Stoute (Newmarket (GB)) 

Race Guide Rating = 7

Form +7 / Factors +0         

Won well after controlling from the front in the 2414m Hardwicke Stakes beating EAGLE TOP, but Caulfield Cup run was only fair. Needs to lift. Verdict: No bet.

 

2. CRITERION $14

Barrier 4 | 57.5kg | 5yo chestnut Entire | Michael Walker | David Hayes & Tom Dabernig (Euroa) 

Race Guide Rating = 7

Form +10 / Factors -3

Returned from overseas to win Caulfield Stakes first-up, then improved for very good 2nd behind superstar WINX in the Cox Plate. Up to 3200m is the risk. Verdict: Others better value than the $14.

 

3. FAME GAME $4

Barrier 12 | 57.0kg | 5yo bay or brown Entire | Zac Purton | Yoshitada Munakata (Japan) 

Race Guide Rating = 12

Form +10 / Factors +2

Ran 2nd to champion Gold Ship before hit the line hard for 6th in the Caulfield Cup. That run caught the eye. Top pick. Verdict: Win bet at $4 and include in all multiples.

 

4. OUR IVANHOWE $21

Barrier 22 | 56.0kg | 5yo bay Entire | Ben Melham | Lee & Anthony Freedman (Flemington)            

Race Guide Rating = 8

Form +8 / Factors +0

Carried big weight when 2nd to Let's Make Adeal, before good 3rd to Mongolian Khan in 2400m Caulfield Cup. Value chance, but wide barrier not ideal. Verdict: Risky bet from barrier 22.

 

5. BIG ORANGE $51

Barrier 23 | 55.5kg | 4yo bay Gelding | Jamie Spencer | Michael Bell (Newmarket (GB))  

Race Guide Rating = 7

Form +6 / Factors +1

Kept lifting to beat QUEST FOR MORE and TRIP TO PARIS in the 3219m Goodwood Cup, before 7th to MAX DYNAMITE in the wet. Knock-out chance. Verdict: Bet now each-way at $51.

 

6. HARTNELL $31

Barrier 17 | 55.5kg | 4yo bay Gelding | James McDonald | John O'Shea (Flemington) 

Race Guide Rating = 6

Form +6 / Factors +0

Steadily returning to form, running good 5th to Winx in the Cox Plate. Well beaten by GRAND MARSHALL in the 3200m Sydney Cup in April. Outside chance. Verdict: Others preferred.

 

7. HOKKO BRAVE $31

Barrier 20 | 55.5kg | 7yo bay Entire | Craig Williams | Yasutoshi Matsunaga (Japan)               

Race Guide Rating = 6

Form +6 / Factors +0

Stuck wide in the 2400m Caulfield Cup when 10th to Mongolian Khan and wasn't far off FAME GAME start prior. Could place. Verdict: Place bet at $8.50.

 

8. MAX DYNAMITE $13

Barrier 2 | 55.0kg | 5yo bay Gelding | Frankie Dettori | William Mullins (Ireland)          

Race Guide Rating = 8

Form +8 / Factors +0

Flashed late in the Galway Hurdle, before dominant win on wet ground in the 3300m Lonsdale Cup, beating TRIP TO PARIS and others. Right in this. Verdict: Good bet if the rain comes, Factor rating +1 in the Wet.

 

9. RED CADEAUX $34

Barrier 8 | 55.0kg | 9yo chestnut Gelding | Gerald Mosse | Ed Dunlop (Newmarket (GB))                

Race Guide Rating = 6

Form +4 / Factors +2

Only 3rd to Agent Murphy over 2672m at Group 3 level last start, but form was similar before 2nd in this race last year (for 3rd time!). Place chance. Verdict: Small place bet only at $9.

 

10. TRIP TO PARIS $9

Barrier 14 | 55.0kg | 4yo bay Gelding | Tommy Berry | Ed Dunlop (Newmarket (GB))  

Race Guide Rating = 11

Form +9 / Factors +2

Winner of the 4023m Ascot Gold Cup, he enjoyed the firm ground for strong 2nd to Mongolian Khan in the Caulfield Cup. Hard to hold out. Verdict: Getting short now at $9, one for the trifectas.

 

11. WHO SHOT THEBARMAN $21

Barrier 6 | 54.5kg | 7yo bay Gelding | Blake Shinn | Chris Waller (Rosehill)

Race Guide Rating = 9

Form +6 / Factors +3

Ran 3rd in this race last year and Caulfield Cup run was OK, finishing 7th after going wide on the turn. Drawn well and could place again. Verdict: Bet at $6 a place.

 

 

12. SKY HUNTER $41

Barrier 7 | 54.0kg | 5yo bay Gelding | William Buick | Saeed Bin Suroor (Newmarket (GB))  

Race Guide Rating = 9

Form +8 / Factors +1

Carried 61kg and kept fighting on for 2nd behind The Corsican over 2213m. Dominant at two previous starts. Don't dismiss. Verdict: Take the $41 each-way.

 

13. THE OFFER $41

Barrier 13 | 54.0kg | Damien Oliver | 6yo bay Gelding | Gai Waterhouse (Flemington)  

Race Guide Rating = 5

Form +4 / Factors +1

Returned to form winning 2400m Bendigo Cup carrying 59kg, but form-lines from last two starts questionable. Up against it. Verdict: Others have better winning chances.

 

14. GRAND MARSHALL $41

Barrier 15 | 53.5kg | 5yo brown Gelding | Jim Cassidy | Chris Waller (Rosehill)

Race Guide Rating = 7

Form +5 / Factors +2

3200m Sydney Cup winner over WHO SHOT THEBARMAN that wound up solidly in the Caulfield Cup. Will get back early and swoop home. Knock-out chance. Verdict: At right odds, small each-way wager.

 

15. PREFERMENT $10

Barrier 11 | 53.5kg | 4yo bay Entire | Hugh Bowman | Chris Waller (Rosehill)               

Race Guide Rating = 11

Form +8 / Factors +3

Good win in the 2000m Turnbull Stakes, before went very wide in the Cox Plate when bias was against. Dominated the Derby at this track. Leading chance. Verdict: Get on at $10 now.

 

16. QUEST FOR MORE $101

Barrier 21 | 53.5kg | 5yo bay Gelding | Damian Lane | Roger Charlton (Wiltshire (GB))

Race Guide Rating = 7

Form +4 / Factors +3

Worked hard on the pace before tiring behind ALMOONQITH in the 2400m Geelong Cup. Could forgive that, but drawn wide again here. Verdict: Form-lines not bad, take the $101.

 

17. ALMOONQITH $15

Barrier 10 | 53.0kg | 5yo bay Entire | Dwayne Dunn | David Hayes & Tom Dabernig (Euroa)

Race Guide Rating = 7

Form +7 / Factors +0

Got a nice trail into the race and broke clear for big Geelong Cup win over 2400m. Going well, but other form references might be stronger. Verdict: Could surprise, but others better value at $15.

 

18. KINGFISHER $34

Barrier 9 | 53.0kg | 4yo bay Entire | Colm O'Donoghue | Aidan O'Brien (Co. Tipperary (IRE))

Race Guide Rating = 6

Form +4 / Factors +2

Unlucky not to beat TRIP TO PARIS in the 4023m Ascot Gold Cup, but recent runs have been below best. Needs to find old form. Verdict: Hold and watch for market moves.

 

19. PRINCE OF PENZANCE $61

Barrier 1 | 53.0kg | 6yo bay Gelding | Ms Michelle Payne | Darren Weir (Wangoom)

Race Guide Rating = 4

Form +4 / Factors +0

Only managed 8th in the Herbert Power Stakes before the bias helped last start at The Valley. Roughie. Verdict: Others preferred.

 

20. BONDI BEACH $21

Barrier 18 | 52.5kg | 3yo bay Entire | Brett Prebble | Aidan O'Brien (Co. Tipperary (IRE))

Race Guide Rating = 11

Form +9 / Factors +2

Good 2nd to classy filly Simple Verse at Group One level last time over 2917m. Form-lines through Order Of St George look good. Value chance. Verdict: Bet now at $21.

 

21. SERTORIUS $201

Barrier 5 | 52.5kg | 8yo bay Gelding | Craig Newitt | Jamie Edwards (Geelong)              

Race Guide Rating = 1

Form +1 / Factors +0

Form-lines aren't up to this level, only managing 9th to ALMOONQITH in the Geelong Cup. Up against it. Verdict: Save your money.

 

22. THE UNITED STATES $17

Barrier 3 | 52.5kg | 5yo chestnut Entire | Joao Moreira | Robert Hickmott (Mt. Macedon)

Race Guide Rating = 6

Form +6 / Factors +0

Ran down PRINCE OF PENZANCE over 2500m last start, but form-lines there are questionable. Needs to lift again. Verdict: Others better value.

 

23. EXCESS KNOWLEDGE $31

Barrier 24 | 51.0kg | 5yo brown Entire | Kerrin McEvoy | Gai Waterhouse (Flemington)

Race Guide Rating = 4

Form +5 / Factors -1

Scraped in to win the 2500m Lexus Stakes on Saturday to qualify. This is much harder, but does drop 5.5kg in weight. Could sneak a place. Verdict: Risky from barrier 24.

 

24. GUST OF WIND $34

Barrier 19 | 51.0kg | 4yo bay Mare | Chad Schofield | John Sargent (Randwick) 

Race Guide Rating = 8

Form +7 / Factors +1

Stayed on for 4th behind Mongolian Khan in the 2400m Caulfield Cup and did beat Winx in the Oaks. Value each-way chance up to 3200m. Verdict: Take the $34 each-way.




Copyright The Race Guide 2024