Key Factors: The Oaks

Published: 04 Nov 2015

Superior stamina - Set Square stayed on best to win last year's Oaks

The fillies stretch out to 2,500 metres for the first time today at Flemington, a real test of stamina for horses that were two only a couple of months ago.

It's a field of eleven and hopefully a fair contest, but with the recent track bias and rain in and around Melbourne, it's very hard to tell early in the day.

So lets stick to the Factors we know will have an impact; FORM, DISTANCE and WET tracks. The Race Guide's Analyst Team has rated the field against those three Key Factors.

Key Factor 1: FORM

The form ratings for the field are very easy to pick, the handicapper has done all the work for us. JAMEKA (no. 2) beat home Derby winner Tarzino last start and PASADENA GIRL (no. 1) wasn't far behind.

AMBIENCE (no. 4) and HONESTA (no. 5) bring similar form-lines and SACRED EYE (no. 3) has good ratings too.

Positives

1. PASADENA GIRL
2. JAMEKA
3. SACRED EYE
4. AMBIENCE
5. HONESTA

Winning form - Jameka has been impressive in recent starts

Key Factor 2: DISTANCE

Looking for Fillies that will stay the 2,500 metres, we have to rely on their racing style, breeding and the physical appearance of each galloper.

Of the runners with good form, JAMEKA ticks the boxes when it comes to racing style and conformation, but she does have some speed on her dams side. Similarly, SACRED EYE (by High Chapparal) is shaping as a staying type.

AMBIENCE has scope to her frame and some of the qualities of the great mare Winx and HONESTA is a lean efficient type bred from a Derby winner. Perhaps PASADENA GIRL is a small negative, lacking the size and scope of others, but she is very genuine and well-bred.

Roughies that could be suited include ZARABEEL and DULVERTON.

Positives

2. JAMEKA
3. SACRED EYE
4. AMBIENCE
5. HONESTA
10. ZARABEEL
11. DULVERTON

Qualities of Winx - Ambience is a classy filly that should stay the distance

Key Factor 3: WET

Many of the Fillies aren't exposed to wet ground, including the two favoured runners JAMEKA and SACRED EYE.

JAMEKA is a nicely balanced type that likes to find her rhythm, while SACRED EYE is a muscular filly with more strength to her frame. Neither are obvious wet trackers and we'll have to take a guide from the market leading up to the race.

PASADENA GIRL, AMBIENCE, HONESTA, ZARABEEL and DULVERTON have all performed OK on SOFT ground, a factor that could make a difference if the favourites flounder.

Positives

1. PASADENA GIRL
4. AMBIENCE
5. HONESTA
10. ZARABEEL
11. DULVERTON

Lean and efficient - Honesta skipped across the wet turf at Randwick

The Verdict

Following through on AMBIENCE each-way at $4.20 looks like a very good bet in the conditions, while HONESTA has to be value at $11.

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