Top 5 Early Insights @ Stakes Day

Published: 05 Nov 2015

Group One showdown - Chautauqua and Terravista are set to do battle again

The Flemington Carnival winds up this Saturday with the running of the Emirates Stakes, a Group One feature over 1,600 metres.

It's been a Carnival highlighted by the amazing win of PRINCE OF PENZANCE in the Melbourne Cup at the odds of 100/1. Jockey Michelle Payne and her younger brother Stevie, the strapper of the horse, have been the talk of the town all week.

But there has been controversy with the Flemington track showing signs of significant 'bias'; something that prevents some gallopers from having a chance by favouring horses in a certain part of the track.

With a good knowledge of how the track is playing, The Race Guide's Analyst Team list their Top 5 Early Insights below.

1 - Swoopers & Swimmers

After there was a NEAR RAILS bias on Saturday and Tuesday, horses started to get OFF RAILS on Oaks day. Expect that trends to continue despite the rail going out to +6 metres.

Horses like DISPOSITION, MAY'S DREAM and ROCK STURDY could be a good early price in the Emirates (Race 7).

The Bet - Take the $9 DISPOSITION, $21 MAY'S DREAM and $26 ROCK STURDY early

Swooping miler - May's Dream fits the profile for the Emirates this weekend

2 - Gai's Galloping Now

After a long lean period, the Spring Carnival has seen Gai Waterhouse hit top form again

Starting with EXCESS KNOWLEDGE's brave 7th in the Melbourne Cup, her last ten runners on Tuesday finished 5th, 3rd, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 1st and 1st respectively.

Watch out for BONFIRE (Race 3) and ECUADOR (Race 7) this weekend.

The Bet - BONFIRE each-way at $10

Live place chance - Ecuador shouldn't be dismissed in the Emirates Stakes

3 - Best Sprinter in the World?

There has been a lot of talk about which Australian sprinter is the best and we'll get to find out in the Group One Darley Classic (Race 6) over 1,200 metres.

There isn't much doubt that CHAUTAUQUA brings the best form-lines, but Jo Pride won't give up the title easily with TERRAVISTA.

The Bet - Quinella CHAUTAUQUA and TERRAVISTA

Can't split them - On peak ratings there isn't much between Chautauqua and Terravista

4 - Ready to Peak

As we reach the end of the Carnival, many of the horses are reaching their peak distances as they target their 'grand final' races.

Horses like MESSENE (better up to 1,600 metres) and AROD (better back in distance) will be suited in the Emirates (Race 7), while MIRAGE and JAVA will enjoy the step up to 1,400 metres in Race 9.

The Bet - Win bets on MIRAGE at $7.5 and JAVA at $7

Loves the distance - Mirage finds his best ratings over 1,400 metres

5 - Process of Elimination

The Matriarch Stakes (Race 8) sees a big field of Mares go around over 2,000 metres and on paper is looks very hard to pick.

But if you take a negative view of THUNDER LADY (out of form), CASINO DANCER (doesn't stay 2,000 metres), BALLET SUITE (drawn inside and risk in wet), LADY CUMQUAT (very plain lately) and ZARZALI (drawn inside), we're left with LUCIA VALENTINA, PONDAROSA MISS, MANAGERESS and UNGRATEFUL ELLEN as the key chances.

The Bet - To win on PONDAROSA MISS at $10, MANAGERESS at $9 and UNGRATEFUL ELLEN at $10

Ticks the boxes - Manageress fits in well over 2,000 metres in the Matriarch Stakes