Key Factors: Emirates Stakes
Published: 06 Nov 2015
Taking on the boys - Politeness steps up to take on the Group One Emirates Stakes on Saturday
Picking the winner of the Emirates Stakes at the end of the Flemington Carnival is never easy, it's a big handicap mile race with lots of high class horses getting towards the end of their preparations. This year, challengers from New Zealand and the United Kingdom take on a crack field of local stars in what is sure to be a closely fought battle.
Wet weather, track bias and lots of tempo characterise the conditions of the race, Factors that are sure to have an impact on the result.
The Race Guide's Analyst Team has rated the horses against those Factors to try and find you some value.
Key Factor 1: Wet Track
The rain around Melbourne leaves us looking for horses that handle the wet. TURN ME LOOSE is a Kiwi with OK stats when the ground is soft, while BOW CREEK, DISPOSITION and ECUADOR are all very tough milers that get through the conditions.
You can’t knock POLITENESS and ROCK STURDY too, the latter only failed once on a HEAVY when the Randwick track was 'bottomless'
Positives
- 3. TURN ME LOOSE
- 4. BOW CREEK
- 5. DISPOSITION
- 7. ECUADOR
- 11. POLITENESS
- 14. ROCK STURDY
Doesn't mind it muddy - Rock Sturdy can handle wet tracks OK
Key Factor 2: Finishing Surge
With a STRONG tempo likely we want to know which horses ‘stick on’ in their races, rather than the ones that rely on a speedy turn-of-foot, a quality that won’t have much value here.
Horses like TURN ME LOOSE, BOW CREEK, DISPOSITION, ECUADOR, MESSENE, MAY’S DREAM, ROCK STURDY and HE OR SHE all show a good surge to the line over 1,600 metres when they are in form.
Positives
- 3. TURN ME LOOSE
- 4. BOW CREEK
- 5. DISPOSITION
- 7. ECUADOR
- 8. MESSENE
- 13. MAY’S DREAM
- 14. ROCK STURDY
- 16. HE OR SHE
Strong to the line - Messene breaking clear of the pack to win last year
Key Factor 3: Position in Run
Given the bias will probably be OFF RAILS on the last day of the Carnival, you may not want your horse back on the inside. Leaders could also find it tougher as they steer away from the rails on the turn and try to keep their momentum.
ECUADOR is drawn 6 and will be just off the leaders, potentially tracking wider, while BOW CREEK, DISPOSITION, MAY’S DREAM, ROCK STURDY and HE OR SHE can take up a position on the outer edge of the pack and run on late.
AROD can stride up on the outside of TURN ME LOOSE, but racing right on the STRONG tempo won’t be ideal. SON'S OF JOHN is awkwardly drawn in 2.
Positives
- 4. BOW CREEK
- 5. DISPOSITION
- 7. ECUADOR
- 13. MAY’S DREAM
- 14. ROCK STURDY
- 16. HE OR SHE
Swooping style - May's Dream is drawn wide and can finish her races off
The Verdict
BOW CREEK, DISPOSITION, ECUADOR and ROCK STURDY rate well against all 3 Key Factors in a very tricky race. Value chances to MESSENE, MAY’S DREAM and HE OR SHE.
Bet now at the odds below with CrownBet:
3 Key Factors
2 Key Factors