Top 5 Early Insights
Published: 12 Nov 2015
Due for a win - Jockey Nathan Thomas celebrates Mighty Lucky's last win, 17 starts ago!
The Spring Carnival is winding down with an off-season card at Rosehill Gardens supporting the Zipping Classic at Sandown in Melbourne.
Wet weather in both states could change the race day conditions at short notice, giving us a chance to strike at the early odds.
Ahead of the Race Guides tomorrow morning, the Analyst Team have listed their Top 5 Early Insights below.
1 - No Love in the Slow Lane
RISING ROMANCE was one of many horses impacted by the ON-RAILS bias at Flemington a couple of weeks ago. She loomed to beat GAILO CHOP before her run seemed to end, finishing up in the same 'lane' that Darley Classic winner Delectation raced in when he was disappointing behind Eclair Choice.
He improved by many lengths and so could she.
The Bet - RISING ROMANCE at $3.50
Carnival favourite - Rising Romance deserves to win a big race this Spring
2 - Grinding Away
TREMEC and LIKE A CAROUSEL are both uninspiring horses, gallopers that have the turn-of-foot of a carthorse and a 'non-winner' tag to their name.
But stepping up to two miles in the Sandown Cup on a slightly soft track should suit them perfectly.
Both are good bets for a place, you know they will be there whacking away at the end.
The Bet - Place bets on TREMEC $4.60 and LIKE A CAROUSEL $4.20
Just keeps going - Like A Carousel has placed three times from five tries at the two miles
3 - Pinned In?
Race 4 at Rosehill Gardens is a competitive sprint race over 1,100 metres with short-priced favourite INZ'N'OUT dominating early markets.
He's a tough horse to beat and is always in the mix, but the early odds look very skinny. A big risk for him is the possibility of an OFF RAILS bias, which would see him stuck on the inside in lesser ground.
If you're betting early, HOWMUCHDOYOULOVEME, RELIGIFY and RIFLEMAN are better value bets.
The Bet - Either of HOWMUCHDOYOULOVEME $19, RELIGIFY $3.7 or RIFLEMAN $17
4 - Weighted to Win
Mares races are always difficult to pick, they tend to bring similar form and finish in a bunch.
Using the form-lines to your advantage is the key and a big weight drop can make all the difference. FIFTYSHADESOFGREY ends up on just 53.5kg in Race 6 at Rosehill after an apprentice's claim.
That's a weight that could see her sprint best.
The Bet - FIFTYSHADESOFGREY at $10
5 - Fighting Off Frespanol
Waterhouse's Warrior FRESPANOL is hard fit and sure to run well in Race 7, coming off a win over Group One Emirates place-getter Rock Sturdy at his most recent start.
Stepping back in distance at a track that isn't his favourite makes the short odds hard to swallow though.
MIGHTY LUCKY and HAUSSMANN are a much better price second-up. They can both improve and win.
The Bet - MIGHTY LUCKY $11 and HAUSSMANN $17 (each-way)
Bet if it's wet - Haussmann loves racing on a soft Rosehill track