Key Factors: Royal Randwick Race 8
Published: 04 Dec 2015
Winning colours - Adam Hyeronimus gets a ride on one of his favourite gallopers today
The rail is back in the TRUE for Royal Randwick today and the track has surprisingly been presented as a GOOD 4 following some irrigation during the week and dew on race day morning.
A crown, or 'lane', a few horses off the rails is usually the best place to be when the ground is drying out at Randwick, keep a close eye on the conditions during the day on www.theraceguide.com.au.
The Analyst Team has a look at the Key Factors that will impact Race 8.
Royal Randwick Race 8
- Class: BM 77
- Distance: 1600m
- Conditions: GOOD 4
- Bias: Possible OFF RAILS (forecast)
- Tempo: STEADY to FAIR (forecast)
Key Factor 1 - Position-in-Run
With a possible OFF RAILS bias and a tempo that shouldn't be too strong there is value in having a horse nearer the pace with room to move. Those gallopers stuck back on the inside could be a bit risky.
CAPED CRUSADER could get an easy lead, while ANYAAS, INVINZABEEL and MARY LOU won't be far away. RUSTIC MELODY has enough early speed to get near the pace if she wants
Positives
More positive today - Kris Lees has indicated that Rustic Melody could be on the pace
Key Factor 2 - Power (turn-of-foot)
If the tempo is STEADY then you'll need a horse that can quicken at the top of the straight and get clear of the field. Many of the gallopers are on their way up to longer distances and may not have the dash needed.
CAPED CRUSADER can quicken from on the pace, while MARY LOU is a genuine miler that is a touch sharper than the others.
Positives
Can quicken - The Cummings galloper Mary Lou specialises in the mile
Key Factor 3 - Weight
There's been a lot of talk amongst the trainers about the influence increasing weights have having on results. There is no doubt that the extra weight is a negative, even though there is debate about how much of an impact it has.
Lots of horses claim in this race as a result, leaving CAUTHEN'S POWER (60kg) and INVINZABEEL (59.5kg) on the highest weights.
Negatives
Up in the weights - Invinzabeel is up in grade but gets no weight relief
The Verdict
There's no denying the form of CAUTHEN'S POWER and INVINZABEEL will be hard to beat, but the Key Factors suggest CAPED CRUSADER and MARY LOU are good chances too. RUSTIC MELODY and ANYAAS are the value.
1. CAPED CRUSADER $4.6
2. MARY LOU $10
3. RUSTIC MELODY $17
4. ANYAAS $10
Top selection - Caped Crusader ticks the boxes for Gai Waterhouse