Top 5 Early Insights
Published: 27 Jan 2016
Flashing first-up run - Painted Firetail finds the right race after a bold return
The Autumn Carnival is fast approaching with Group Two racing at Rosehill Gardens this weekend, supported by a great card at Flemington. There's a total of eighteen races across both cities, good sized fields and plenty of value on offer.
Ahead of The Race Guides going on-line Friday 9am, the Analyst Team have listed their Top 5 Early Insights below.
All odds are provided by CrownBet (updated 5:46pm Thursday).
No. 1 Powering Up
Waller's galloper CAUTHEN'S POWER has had an odd campaign.
James McDonald rode the son of Road to Rock aggressively second-up over 1,500 metres and he came away with a big win. That race had a very strong tempo, suggesting the four-year-old had the stamina to step up in distance.
But last Saturday, at his seventh run this campaign, he was still racing at the mile. Finishing a respectable 2nd to Testashadow.
The step to 2,000 metres in Rosehill Race 6 is long overdue.
Bet on CAUTHEN'S POWER at $8
No. 2 Opportunity to Profit
Race 3 at Flemington, the Barrie Kerr Handicap, is a tricky mares race over 1,600 metres.
Peter Moody's NOELA’S CHOICE is well suited on a wet track up in distance, but will a possible STEADY tempo be her undoing? And MISS SOFTHANDS is racing in peak form. The powerful daughter of Bel Esprit needs to prove she can stay the distance now.
That leaves the door open for a roughie at each-way odds. A horse like Adelaide wet tracker TIDY PROPHET fits the bill.
Bet on TIDY PROPHET at $10
No. 3 Firing Filly
Backing classy three-year-olds at this time of year pays good dividends as they enter the benchmark system between the Spring and Autumn Carnivals.
PAINTED FIRETAIL hit the line nicely first-up behind River Wild after making her run in the worst ground near the rails.
She handles the wet and will be very hard to beat carrying 55kg in Rosehill Race 8.
Bet on PAINTED FIRETAIL at $3.4
No. 4 Water Under the Bridge?
The business of forgiving horses can be a costly one. Once their form has headed South, it's often time to jump off and save your money.
HEADWATER is a good example, a classy Hawkes colt at best, he's produced some weak finishes at his worst.
The Analyst Team figure that four out of his eight runs would win Race 7 at Flemington. Can you give him one more chance?
Bet on HEADWATER at $7
No. 5 Blue Ribbon Finish
The Hawkes galloper LE CORDON BLEU is a talented sprinter with a name that translates to "blue ribbon" in French.
But that's not why he's named LE CORDON BLEU, the more likely link is to the snitzel dish invented by the Swiss with the same name (..you guessed it, his sire is Snitzel).
Either way, he is fresh from a big run in the Gold Coast Magic Millions and is perfectly placed over Rosehill's 1,100 metres on a SOFT track.
Bet on LE CORDON BLEU at $4.2
Back to the winner's stall? - Le Cordon Bleu has raced well without winning this campaign