When the Form Guide just isn’t enough

Published: 07 Sep 2014

Rock Sturdy - arguably the best horse in the race, so why didn't he win?

“Horse conformation and type with preferably no knowledge of form is a contentious issue” wrote Max Presnell in the Sydney Morning Herald, of The Race Guide approach. 

 http://www.smh.com.au/sport/horseracing/form-analysts-evolve-as-they-chase-the-elusive-dream-20140522-zrksk.html ("Form analysts evolve as they chase the elusive dream" Max Presnell - The Sydney Morning Herald) 

Now, the analyst team at The Race Guide don't want to suggest that form is irrelevant. The opposite is true - analysing past performances is often the best way to pick a winner.

That isn’t always the case though and yesterday was the perfect example of when “knowing your horse” can make the difference between a hard-luck story and a collect.

The track at Royal Randwick was tough, very tough, with the thick turf, wet ground and famous Randwick Rise (an uphill section early in the home straight) all combining to make it a real test for gallopers. It’s hard to imagine what 500kg horses ‘feel’ when they try and go top speed in those conditions, but anyone who has done a Tough Mudder course might have a better idea.

Trying to pick the right horse took much more than just heavy track statistics. Indeed, if you were going off the form sheet, Corryvreckan would have looked like a sure thing (2 starts on heavy tracks for 2 wins). But, by the time the last race came around it was pretty clear that the heavier and more muscular types were struggling to lift their feet.

Not the type - heavy-set horses like Corryvreckan weren't performing at Royal Randwick 

Rock Sturdy too just wasn't the ‘type’ to be winning yesterday. The much smaller and less talented Danesiri even got close to him after missing the start hopelessly. 

The Race Guide team on-track listed their positive thoughts on Supreme Warrior and Danesiri before the race

Add to the list Washington Heights, Valentia, Slivovitz, the sprinters that lined up against the athletic Wouldn't It Be Nice and nippy Nuclear Class, and the win of the light and lean Lucia Valentina and you can see the trend.

Choosing the right horse for your cash was like trying to find the little mud-bike that could skip past a big BMW X3.

Next week we move to the big open expanses, and flat racing surface, of Rosehill Gardens, where the ‘X3s’ come into their element. You can bet there will be value to be found from the gallopers most suited on the day.

Check The Race Guide from Thursday morning for the Form Guides and Type Guides for each of the key Sydney events.

'Mud bike' - the little Nuclear Class skipped through the mud to get 2nd