Opening Trades
Published: 30 Mar 2016
Derby winner - Tarzino has already won one Derby and he's set to do the job again
We know a couple of things ahead of Day One of The Championships this weekend, some midweek rain should leave the surface in the SOFT range and you can almost guarantee an OFF RAILS bias.
They're important factors that the Bookies rarely price into their early markets. Expect some big race day plunges, the trick is trying to find where the early value is.
The Analyst Team has a crack at finding some early 'buys' and 'sells' that could set you up for a big weekend before it's even begun!
All odds provided by our partner CrownBet.
Randwick Race 3 – Group 3 Chairman’s Handicap
BUY DESTINY’S KISS to place at $1.85
In a small field with a dominant favourite LIBRAN, betting on this Jo Pride galloper for a place shapes as a good play. He comes through a strong form race and will love getting back onto softer ground.
Add the fact he’s come no worse than 4th all this preparation and you have a pretty reliable betting prospect.
Randwick Race 4 – Country Championship Final
SELL CLEARLY INNOCENT at $2.35
The big-striding galloper is in flying form but he couldn’t have drawn a worse barrier. Getting stuck on the inside is a nightmare for two reasons, firstly he enjoys galloping room and secondly it’s expected the better ground will be out wider.
He is sure to drift on race day so backing the other key runners early makes sense.
Randwick Race 7 – Australian Derby
BUY TARZINO at $1.95
The Victoria Derby winner is one serious stayer that dominated the Group One Rosehill Guineas last start. Any horse that puts a margin on a Group One field like that has talent and TALLY will have to be mighty good to challenge him over a mile and a half.
The money will come on race day so get on early!
Randwick race 9 – The Doncaster
BUY VOLKSTOK'N'BARRELL at $23
He won the Group One Rosehill Guineas beating Preferment and is coming off two strong NZ Group One wins, yet only has to carry 52.5kg on Saturday. That’s 4kg less than WINX, or 6kg less than he would have to carry if facing her at Weight For Age.
The early odds are way ‘overs’ and he’s worth an early investment.
Randwick Race 10 – Adrian Knox Stakes
SELL SACRED EYE at $4.6
She’s still being priced on last preparation’s form, while unfortunately it looks like things aren’t going as well this time in. She found an ideal race last time at Rosehill, but only managed a mediocre performance over 1,500 metres.
It’s hard to see her winning with 59kg on her back.
Inside barrier not ideal - Clearly Innocent isn't suited getting crammed up against the Randwick rail