Finding your Oaks Filly
Published: 07 Apr 2016
Looking for the right type - Caroline Searcy inspects a filly ahead of the Vinery Stakes
Close and competitive racing is the theme of the day at Royal Randwick this weekend and the Group One Australian Oaks is no different. The best staying fillies from Australia and New Zealand have arrived in Sydney and based on recent form there's only a length or two between the favourites!
If you're doing the form, there's lots of different factors to weigh up when finding the winner. We list a few that could help you find the right filly.
Derby Class
JAMEKA is backing up from last week’s Australian Derby against the boys, with previous ATC Oaks winners Research, Grand Archway, Bounding Away, Danendri and Sunday Joy all following the same path.
Fillies classy enough to take on the boys do very well in the Oaks.
POSITIVES
- JAMEKA
Classy filly - Jameka paraded beautifully ahead of the Derby last weekend
Kiwi's Can
Kiwi horses have a good record in both the Derby and the Oaks, with Daffodil and Rising Romance dashing across the ditch to win the Oaks in the last 10 years. The raiders this year are the talented VALLEY GIRL, tough SOFIA ROSA and strong CAPELLA, who all fit the mould of a possible Oaks winner.
POSITIVES
- VALLEY GIRL
- SOFIA ROSA
- CAPELLA
Another Kiwi winner? - Valley Girl could repeat the efforts of Kiwi Derby winner Tavago
The Stamina to Stay
It goes without saying that the winner of the 2,400 metre Oaks has to have stamina. You would think Vinery Stakes winner SINGLE GAZE (bred from NOT A SINGLE DOUBT) is a risk up in distance, but she is such a tough little fighter!
HAPPY HANNAH, CHABAUD and ALASKAN ROSE have been hitting the line OK, but aren't obvious long distance types. JAMEKA, HONESTA, VALLEY GIRL, SOFIA ROSA, DIAMOND MADE and CAPELLA are look the part in the mounting yard.
POSITIVES
- JAMEKA
- HONESTA
- VALLEY GIRL
- SOFIA ROSA
- DIAMOND MADE
- CAPELLA
Can stay the distance - Honesta is a tough filly that always runs on in her races
Is Fresh Best?
If you are looking for a fresh horse on the scene, BELIEVE (5th start) and HAPPY HANNAH (6th start) are horses following in the footsteps of Gust of Wind, who won the Oaks last year at just her 5th start.
But it doesn't happen often! Previous winners Rising Romance (10th start), Royal Descent (7th start), Streama (13th start), Absolutely (7th start) and Once Were Wild (8th start) all had a couple of extra runs under their belt.
NEGATIVES
- BELIEVE
- HAPPY HANNAH
Too new? - Happy Hannah is talented, but isn't the most 'seasoned' filly in the field
Patient Pilots
A different set of skills is needed for a jockey that rides stayers, the ability to settle the horse and patience to wait until the right moment to let your horse stride for home. Surprisingly Damien Oliver has had 13 rides in the race for no wins, Blake Shinn has had 6 rides for no wins and Craig Williams 6 rides for no wins.
In fact, of the jockeys on favourites, only Bowman with 8 rides for 2 wins has a good record in the race. Kiwi Opie Bosson hasn't ridden in the Australian Oaks, but he has four NZ Oaks to his name.
POSITIVES
- SOFIA ROSA
- CAPELLA
Can't find a winner - Damien Oliver has a poor record in Sydney in recent seasons
Lead Foot Leaders
As far as the winning race pattern is concerned, only Once Were Wild (2010 winner) has had the stamina to lead from the front in recent years. The likes of JAMEKA, SELF ESTEEM and ZASORCERESS are all on-pacers this year that will be looking to hold on late.
NEGATIVES
- JAMEKA
- SELF ESTEEM
- ZASORCERESS
Looking over her shoulder - Self Esteem will have to be very strong to hang on
The Verdict
Only positives for Kiwis SOFIA ROSA and CAPELLA, they're both big threats to the Derby runner JAMEKA.
Bet on SOFIA ROSA $8.5 and CAPELLA $9 now
click here to check out the Royal Randwick markets
The right type - Capella partners with Opie Bosson again this weekend in the Oaks