Key Factors: Doomben Cup
Published: 18 May 2016
Good times again? - The Godolphin stable has two of the favourites in the Group One Doomben Cup
The Key Factor Ratings for the Doomben Cup are shown below, our Analyst Team's assessment of the best winning chances in the race. Godolphin has two of the ten runners in HAURAKI and IT'S SOMEWHAT and the stable will be desperate to win after a recent lack of feature race winners.
How do they work?
Outside of recent Form, there are multiple factors that will impact the performance of a horse. Things like Track, Distance and Conditions are some of the most important, but there are also other factors like Reliability (is there a risk of a bad run), Adaptability (can a horse adapt to different race tempos), Sprint (acceleration) and Surge (finishing strength).
Using the 'Key Factors' approach, the Analyst Team selects three factors they think will have the biggest impact on the result of a race, outside of the Form.
Do you think they've got it right?
The Form
In the lead-up race at the Gold Coast, the Hollindale Stakes, LEEBAZ held off HAURAKI and VOLKSTOK’N’BARRELL, while IT'S SOMEWHAT stuck on very gamely after a wide run. Other form-lines come from NOBLE PROTECTOR (3rd in G1 Queen of the Turf), MESSENE (1st in Listed Wagga Cup) and OUR IVANHOWE (failed in G1 The BMW after 5th in G1 Australian Cup).
Based on ratings, there isn't a lot between many of them so the Key Factors could make the difference. OUR IVANHOWE with the highest 'peak rating', but he hasn't been running up to that level lately.
Key Factors
Stage of Preparation
Many of these horses are deep into their preparations so check the mounting yard to see if they are fit and well. The favourite HAURAKI is still just a four-year-old and has never been this far into a campaign before (6th start).
+ves
- NOBLE PROTECTOR
- MAURUS
-ves
- HAURAKI
Doomben Track
Only LEEBAZ and MAURUS have started on this track before, LEEBAZ running 2nd in this race a couple of years ago and MAURUS winning in much easier grade last start. The mare NOBLE PROTECTOR has enjoyed tight tracks before so could be suited. OUR IVANHOWE rarely makes ground around a tight bend, many of his German wins coming on a track with a 600 metre straight!
+ves
- NOBLE PROTECTOR
-ves
- OUR IVANHOWE
Surge
If there is pressure in the race expect MESSENE's stamina to be tested, while IT'S SOMEWHAT has the ability to stick on strongly right to the line. LADY LE FAY is another that can wind up and hit the line late.
+ves
- IT'S SOMEWHAT
- OUR IVAHOWE
- LADY LE FAY
-ves
- MESSENE
- NOBLE PROTECTOR
Ratings
- IT’S SOMEWHAT 11.5
- HAURAKI 10.5
- NOBLE PROTECTOR 10.5
- LEEBAZ 10
- VOLKSTOK’N’BARRELL 9.5
- LADY LE FAY 9.5
- OUR IVANHOWE 9
- MESSENE 9
- SPIRITJIM 8.5
- MAURUS 7.5
The Verdict
IT'S SOMEWHAT is set to run a big race on Saturday and the current odds of $5.5 are attractive. HAURAKI in the mix at $3.5, while NOBLE PROTECTOR is the value bet at $9.