Key Factors: Queensland Derby
Published: 10 Jun 2016
Unbeaten for Waller - Kiwi import Mackintosh started his winning streak at the Hawkesbury meeting in Sydney
The Queensland Derby is the last classic for the three-year-old colts and geldings for the year we're treated to a showdown between Sydney's premier trainer Chris Waller and the all-conquering Darren Weir from Melbourne.
Waller has three in the field MACKINTISH, RODRICO and ENCOSTA LINE, but Weir has the favourite in South Australian Derby winner HOWARD BE THY NAME.
How do they measure up against the Analyst Team's Key Factors?
Distance
A few of these three-year-olds are proven at the mile and a half distance already. Darren Weir's HOWARD BE THY NAME won the South Australian Derby and Godolphin's ETYMOLOGY came second in the same race after also finishing one place behind the winner in the Victoria Derby last Spring.
EAGLE WAY and RODRICO are also shaping like they will enjoy the 2,400 metres, while MACKINTOSH is only a slight question mark after winning the main lead-up race over 2,200 metres.
RED ALTO came fourth in the Victoria Derby and shouldn't be dismissed too.
+ves
- HOWARD BE THY NAME
- ETYMOLOGY
- EAGLE WAY
- RODRICO
- RED ALTO
-ves
- CYLINDER BEACH
- ENCOSTA LINE
Position in Run
Favouring horses that are drawn to get a soft run, both MACKINTOSH and HOWARD BE THY NAME have found ideal barriers near the inside. There aren't too many negatives for the favoured runners though, ETYMOLOGY should even get across from the wide barrier to an on-pace position.
BRAZEN and ADMIRAL JELLO are two toughies that have drawn a poor barrier.
+ves
- MACKINTOSH
- HOWARD BE THY NAME
-ves
- BRAZEN
- ADMIRAL JELLO
Scope
One of the reasons Chris Waller is such a successful trainer is because he gets steady improvement from his horses as they go through the grades. Just take a look at the filly Winx, who was far from a champion in the early days. Now she's one of the best horses in the world!
You have to respect his main contenders MACKINTOSH and RODRICO for that reason. EAGLE WAY another that looks like he has more to give.
+ves
- MACKINTOSH
- RODRICO
- EAGLE WAY
Key Factor Ratings
- MACKINTOSH 11.5
- HOWARD BE THY NAME 11.5
- EAGLE WAY 10.5
- ETYMOLOGY10.5
- RODRICO 10
- ESCHIELE 10
- RED ALTO 9.5
- ENCOSTA LINE 9.5
Best Bet
Bet on MACKINTOSH now at $4.8
Value Bet
Quinella MACKINTOSH & HOWARD BE THY NAME
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