The Cox Plate Profiler
Published: 21 Oct 2014
The Class - Fawkner has the class to win the Cox Plate
Racing is a tough game to analyse at the best of times, especially given you don't know how races are going to play out. Jockeys and trainers often change tactics, racing styles vary by horse and track bias can come into play. The number of factors that The Race Guide covers shows how many pieces to the puzzle there are.
But this week's Cox Plate might just present a simpler problem for punters.
Tasmania's war horse The Cleaner has drawn wide and there is only one way he races. He is sure to roll to the lead and set a good strong gallop around the tight turning track. If the weather stays OK, the race set-up is almost guaranteed.
Cox Plate - Key Race Factors
- Good Track (likely)
- Good Tempo (likely)
- Tight-Turning Track
So which gallopers will be able to perform best in a testing Cox Plate?
The "Leader of the Pack" - The Cleaner
He is a warrior unlike any other in Australia with a punishing racing style that sees him test his competitors to the limit. If he wins it will be one mighty effort. Against the class of gallopers that will be chasing him it is hard to see him hanging on though.
The "Class" - Sacred Falls & Fawkner
Both gallopers have a great winning record and rate as leading chances in the race. They have carved a career out of being adaptable across different tracks, conditions and tempos. Sure to go very close.
The "On-pace Athletes" - Side Glance & Almalad
The gallopers that could get into a trail behind The Cleaner if they jump nicely from the gates. Both like to get into a rhythm and keep lifting to the line when asked. The problem will be finding any sort of rhythm behind the Tasmanian steam train setting the pace.
The "Tough Chasers" - Happy Trails & Foreteller
Chris Waller has got Foreteller to race way behind his 'type', while Happy Trails has always been a tough chaser. When the jockey asks for the supreme effort, both are sure to respond. It seems the race sets up well for gallopers with their qualities.
The "Long-striding Swoopers" - Criterion & Sweynesse
Criterion has strengthened up with age, but in his three-year old year there wasn't much of him, just like the sleek efficient build of Sweynesse. They enjoy building up a long sustained run to the line if they can keep balanced during the run. Hugh Bowman and Chad Schofield will both be trying their best to keep the momentum up around the tight Moonee Valley home turn.
The "Bomb-proof Colt" - Adelaide
Not only does Aidan O'Brien's colt have class, he is almost 'bomb-proof' in the way he races. He 'puts in' right from the start to the finish, sometimes trying so hard he drifts out to the centre of the track. The barrier makes things tough, but there is no doubt he will be forcing into the finish at the end.
The Verdict
You can't go wrong with The Class, while the The Tough Chasers might be value. It's hard to bet against The Bomb-proof Colt though, he just needs to get that bit of luck.
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